Fiorentina 2-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Fiorentina (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Hellas Verona have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Fiorentina, 0.90 for Hellas Verona — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fiorentina lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 52% and Hellas Verona 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 57% | Hellas Verona 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.45 xG and Hellas Verona 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.036 / defence 0.902 | Hellas Verona attack 0.941 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.101. Data: 44 Fiorentina games / 44 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 46% | Draw 32% | Hellas Verona 22%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Hellas Verona 4.55. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 30% | Hellas Verona 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 46% | Draw 32% | Hellas Verona 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Fiorentina 1.45 / Hellas Verona 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.036 / def 0.902 | Hellas Verona attack 0.941 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Hellas Verona xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Fiorentina 2 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona part of?
Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 46% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fiorentina and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
Record (2 meetings): Fiorentina 0W | Draws 2 | Hellas Verona 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.04x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.94x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
46%
2.16
32%
3.13
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.38
0.93
Hellas Verona xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
5%
19.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.93 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 20W 8D 16L from 44 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 16L across 44 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.32 for Hellas Verona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 14W 4D 4L from 22 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 5W 10D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.61 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 75%.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Early Season
Hellas Verona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 20W 8D 16L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Hellas Verona away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.09 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 0-3 on 27 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 41%, Hellas Verona 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Fiorentina) and 50% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Fiorentina's games and 77% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Fiorentina's recent games and 50% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Hellas Verona 2-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.45 xG and Hellas Verona 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hellas Verona landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Hellas Verona attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 46% | Draw 32% | Hellas Verona 22%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 57%, Hellas Verona 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.55 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.