Fiorentina 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Artemio Franchi plays host to Fiorentina versus Cremonese in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 4 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Fiorentina (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Cremonese are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Fiorentina 2W, Cremonese 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 58% and Cremonese 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 60% | Cremonese 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.39 xG and Cremonese 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.230 / defence 1.241 | Cremonese attack 0.841 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.102. Data: 55 Fiorentina games / 17 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 42% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 31%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Cremonese 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 90% | Cremonese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 42% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Fiorentina 1.39 / Cremonese 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.230 / def 1.241 | Cremonese attack 0.841 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Cremonese xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Cremonese kick off?
Fiorentina vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Cremonese?
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Fiorentina vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Cremonese part of?
Fiorentina vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 42% chance of winning, Cremonese a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fiorentina and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Cremonese in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.23) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.84x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.77
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.54
1.15
Cremonese xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.15 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina come into this having played 55 games, going 20W 14D 21L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.51 PPG from 55 outings (21W 20D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.51 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fiorentina's home form reads 13W 6D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.52 points per game from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.49 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 20D 14L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Cremonese away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.67 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fiorentina go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 1-4 on 16 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Fiorentina
0
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 4, Cremonese have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Cremonese 1-4 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Cremonese?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 63%, Cremonese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fiorentina and 56% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Fiorentina's games and 56% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fiorentina's matches and 56% of Cremonese's.
Do Fiorentina and Cremonese tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.39 xG and Cremonese 1.15 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.23 / defence 1.24 against Cremonese attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 42% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 31%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 60%, Cremonese 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.35 PPG, Cremonese 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.