Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fiorentina's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cagliari have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.20 for Cagliari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fiorentina register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Cagliari in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Fiorentina are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fiorentina and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 59% versus Cagliari 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 59% | Cagliari 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.78 xG and Cagliari 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.178 / defence 1.055 | Cagliari attack 0.907 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.153. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Fiorentina games / 59 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 53% | Draw 23% | Cagliari 24%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Cagliari 4.17. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 80% | Cagliari 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 53% | Draw 23% | Cagliari 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Fiorentina 1.78 / Cagliari 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.178 / def 1.055 | Cagliari attack 0.907 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cagliari xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Cagliari kick off?
Fiorentina vs Cagliari kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Fiorentina 1 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Fiorentina vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Cagliari part of?
Fiorentina vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 53% chance of winning, Cagliari a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fiorentina and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
Record (7 meetings): Fiorentina 5W | Draws 2 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Cagliari in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.18) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.91x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.28
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.88
1.10
Cagliari xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
4%
25.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.10 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 22W 16D 21L from 59 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 29L across 59 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 14W 7D 8L from 29 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 5W 9D 15L across 29 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fiorentina are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.05 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 22W 16D 21L in their last 59 games (1.39 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 14W 16D 29L in their last 59 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Cagliari away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.69 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
2
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Cagliari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Cagliari?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 62%, Cagliari 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Fiorentina) and 52% (Cagliari). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fiorentina's games and 59% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fiorentina's matches and 52% of Cagliari's.
Do Fiorentina and Cagliari tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Fiorentina 1-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.78 xG and Cagliari 1.10 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.18 / defence 1.05 against Cagliari attack 0.91 / defence 1.26, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 53% | Draw 23% | Cagliari 24%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 59%, Cagliari 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.