Fiorentina 2-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.30 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Fiorentina, 4 for Bologna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 3–2 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Bologna — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 58% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 60% | Bologna 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.25 xG and Bologna 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.066 / defence 1.312 | Bologna attack 1.007 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.070. Data: 45 Fiorentina games / 45 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 31% | Draw 30% | Bologna 39%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Bologna 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 50% | Bologna 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 31% | Draw 30% | Bologna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Fiorentina 1.25 / Bologna 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.066 / def 1.312 | Bologna attack 1.007 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Bologna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Bologna xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Bologna kick off?
Fiorentina vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Fiorentina 2 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Fiorentina vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Bologna part of?
Fiorentina vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 31% chance of winning, Bologna a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fiorentina and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Record (8 meetings): Fiorentina 4W | Draws 0 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.07x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.01x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
31%
3.21
30%
3.32
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.66
1.41
Bologna xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
8%
13.20
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.41 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 19W 11D 15L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna's form line: 20W 15D 10L from 45 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.67 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.82 PPG from 22 outings (12W 4D 6L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 7W 8D 7L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.51 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 19W 11D 15L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while Bologna have gone 20W 15D 10L in their last 45 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Bologna away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.82 PPG; Bologna away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bologna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
1
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Bologna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 59%, Bologna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Fiorentina) and 50% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bologna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 50% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Fiorentina's matches and 50% of Bologna's.
Do Fiorentina and Bologna tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bologna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina and Bologna finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.25 xG and Bologna 1.41 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.07 / defence 1.31 against Bologna attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 31% | Draw 30% | Bologna 39%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 60%, Bologna 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.51 PPG, Bologna 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.