Fiorentina 3-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fiorentina face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Fiorentina have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.80 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Bologna edge it 4 wins to 3, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2024, ended Fiorentina 0–1 Bologna — a Bologna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Bologna — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 54% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 55% | Bologna 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fiorentina surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.48 xG and Bologna 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.110 / defence 0.786 | Bologna attack 0.850 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.147. Fiorentina have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling Bologna's projected output down. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 74 games and Bologna's last 74.
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 54% | Draw 28% | Bologna 19%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.87 | Draw 3.61 | Bologna 5.35. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fiorentina's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 30% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 54% | Draw 28% | Bologna 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Fiorentina 1.48 / Bologna 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.110 / def 0.786 | Bologna attack 0.850 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Bologna xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fiorentina vs Bologna FAQs
What time does Fiorentina vs Bologna kick off?
Fiorentina vs Bologna kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Fiorentina 3 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Fiorentina vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Bologna part of?
Fiorentina vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 54% chance of winning, Bologna a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Fiorentina and Bologna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Fiorentina vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.11x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.85x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from Fiorentina's last 74 games and Bologna's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
54%
1.87
28%
3.61
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.25
0.77
Bologna xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
4%
23.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fiorentina vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.77 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 34W 17D 23L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Bologna's form line: 34W 28D 12L from 74 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.76 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 37 home games (21W 9D 7L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 12W 16D 9L from their last 37 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.46 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
Fiorentina (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fiorentina
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Fiorentina vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 34W 17D 23L in their last 74 games (1.61 PPG), while Bologna have gone 34W 28D 12L in their last 74 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Bologna away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.95 PPG; Bologna away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bologna in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
1
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Fiorentina vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fiorentina have won 5, Bologna have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2026: Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 57%, Bologna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Fiorentina) and 51% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fiorentina vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fiorentina and Bologna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Fiorentina's games and 54% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fiorentina and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fiorentina's matches and 51% of Bologna's.
Do Fiorentina and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 68% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Bologna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Bologna 3-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.48 xG and Bologna 0.77 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.11 / defence 0.79 against Bologna attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 54% | Draw 28% | Bologna 19%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Bologna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.61 PPG, Bologna 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 37
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →