Empoli 1-5 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 21 as Empoli welcome Sassuolo to Stadio Carlo Castellani. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 January 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season.
Sassuolo — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's away record: 3W 3D 3L from 9 road trips in Serie A this season (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Empoli are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Empoli, 0 for Sassuolo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Empoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Sassuolo trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Empoli 70% and Sassuolo 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Empoli 70% | Sassuolo 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.78 xG and Sassuolo 2.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.113 / defence 1.465 | Sassuolo attack 1.135 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.490. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Empoli games / 20 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 27% | Draw 20% | Sassuolo 53%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.70 | Draw 5.00 | Sassuolo 1.89. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.26. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.26 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 2.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Empoli (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.26 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 80% | Sassuolo 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 27% | Draw 20% | Sassuolo 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 76% | xG Empoli 1.78 / Sassuolo 2.48 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.113 / def 1.465 | Sassuolo attack 1.135 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
2.48
Sassuolo xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Sassuolo kick off?
Empoli vs Sassuolo kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Empoli 1 - 5 Sassuolo.
Where is Empoli vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Sassuolo part of?
Empoli vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 27% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 53% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Empoli and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sassuolo?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Empoli and Sassuolo in?
Empoli (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Empoli's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 2.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.0%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
27%
3.65
20%
5.12
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
1 – 3
6.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Empoli xG
Total xG
4.26
2.48
Sassuolo xG
3.65
27%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.25
Clean Sheet
8%
11.91
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
2%
43.42
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Empoli and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Empoli and 2.48 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 4.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli's recent record stands at 8W 4D 8L from 20 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 7L across 20 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.40 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 3W 1D 5L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.55 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Sassuolo in 80%.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 games (1.40 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Sassuolo away?
Sassuolo's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.11 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Sassuolo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Sassuolo won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Empoli
0
Draws
3
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sassuolo?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 3, Sassuolo have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Sassuolo 2-3 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Empoli at 78%, Sassuolo at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Empoli and 100% for Sassuolo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Empoli's games and 100% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Empoli's matches and 100% of Sassuolo's.
Do Empoli and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sassuolo run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Empoli 1-5 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.78 xG and Sassuolo 2.48 xG, a combined 4.26. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Sassuolo outscored their 2.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.11 / defence 1.47 against Sassuolo attack 1.14 / defence 1.37, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 27% | Draw 20% | Sassuolo 53%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 70%, Sassuolo 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.40 PPG, Sassuolo 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.