Cremonese 3-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 0W 4D 6L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Pisa — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 0.40 PPG, Pisa 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Pisa, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Cremonese.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Pisa winning.
It is worth noting that Pisa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pisa trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 56% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Pisa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.28 xG and Pisa 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.656 / defence 1.316 | Pisa attack 0.683 / defence 1.591. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.106. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.591 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Cremonese games / 35 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 43% | Draw 29% | Pisa 29%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Pisa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Pisa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 43% | Draw 29% | Pisa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Cremonese 1.28 / Pisa 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.656 / def 1.316 | Pisa attack 0.683 / def 1.591 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Pisa xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Pisa kick off?
Cremonese vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Cremonese 3 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Cremonese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Pisa part of?
Cremonese vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 43% chance of winning, Pisa a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cremonese and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
Record (7 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 2 | Pisa 4W.
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in?
Cremonese (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.66x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.49
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.27
0.99
Pisa xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.99 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 22W 24D 27L from 73 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 29L across 73 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.23 PPG, Pisa on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 9W 16D 11L from 36 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 9W 12D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.19 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 22W 24D 27L in their last 73 games (1.23 PPG), while Pisa have gone 24W 20D 29L in their last 73 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Pisa away?
Cremonese's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.19 PPG; Pisa away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Pisa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Pisa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Cremonese 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 64%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 53% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cremonese's games and 50% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 53% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Pisa tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Pisa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Pisa 3-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.28 xG and Pisa 0.99 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.66 / defence 1.32 against Pisa attack 0.68 / defence 1.59, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 43% | Draw 29% | Pisa 29%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Pisa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.23 PPG, Pisa 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.