Cremonese 1-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Inter at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Inter have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Inter and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 1–3 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Inter in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 56% versus Inter 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Inter 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.02 xG and Inter 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.611 / defence 1.321 | Inter attack 1.291 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.155. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Cremonese games / 57 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 19% | Draw 22% | Inter 59%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Inter 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Inter (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 30% | Inter 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 19% | Draw 22% | Inter 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Cremonese 1.02 / Inter 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.611 / def 1.321 | Inter attack 1.291 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Inter (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Inter xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Inter kick off?
Cremonese vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Inter?
Cremonese 1 - 2 Inter.
Where is Cremonese vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Inter part of?
Cremonese vs Inter is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 19% chance of winning, Inter a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cremonese and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Inter?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Inter in?
Cremonese (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Inter (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.61x the league average against Inter's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
19%
5.22
22%
4.65
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.99
1.97
Inter xG
5.22
19%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
14%
7.16
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
3%
37.41
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.97 for Inter, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 20W 17D 20L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 37W 10D 10L from 57 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (11W 9D 8L).
On the road, Inter have gone 15W 7D 6L from 28 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.14 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Inter in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 17D 20L in their last 57 games (1.35 PPG), while Inter have gone 37W 10D 10L in their last 57 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.50 PPG; Inter away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Inter in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Inter runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Inter go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when Inter won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Inter specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
0
Draws
4
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Inter?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Inter have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Cremonese 0-2 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 54%, Inter 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 68% (Inter). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Cremonese's games and 71% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Cremonese's matches and 68% of Inter's.
Do Cremonese and Inter tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Inter in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Cremonese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Cremonese 1-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.02 xG and Inter 1.97 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.61 / defence 1.32 against Inter attack 1.29 / defence 1.17, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 19% | Draw 22% | Inter 59%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 47%, Inter 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.