Cremonese 2-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Thursday 8 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cagliari have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cagliari have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Cremonese, 0.90 for Cagliari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cagliari — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 62% versus Cagliari 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Cagliari 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.13 xG and Cagliari 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.889 / defence 1.222 | Cagliari attack 0.932 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.180. Data: 18 Cremonese games / 56 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 42%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Cagliari 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Cagliari 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 31% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Cremonese 1.13 / Cagliari 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.889 / def 1.222 | Cagliari attack 0.932 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Cagliari xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Cagliari kick off?
Cremonese vs Cagliari kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 8 January 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Cagliari?
Cremonese 2 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Cremonese vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Cagliari part of?
Cremonese vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 31% chance of winning, Cagliari a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cremonese and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Cagliari in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.89) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.93x) against Cremonese's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
31%
3.20
27%
3.71
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.47
1.34
Cagliari xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.34 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 20D 15L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.96 PPG from 56 outings (13W 15D 28L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cremonese's home form reads 9W 12D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.85 points per game from 27 outings (5W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.05 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 21W 20D 15L in their last 56 games (1.48 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 13W 15D 28L in their last 56 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Cagliari away?
Cremonese's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.44 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Cagliari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Cagliari 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 70%, Cagliari 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cremonese) and 48% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cremonese's games and 59% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cremonese's recent games and 48% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Cagliari tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Cagliari share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Cagliari finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.13 xG and Cagliari 1.34 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.89 / defence 1.22 against Cagliari attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 31% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 42%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Cagliari 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.