Como 2-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia plays host to Como versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Como have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Como have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
AS Roma (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
AS Roma away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Como, 2 for AS Roma and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Como goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 53% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 44% | AS Roma 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.36 xG and AS Roma 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.210 / defence 0.860 | AS Roma attack 0.981 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.170. Data: 66 Como games / 66 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 45% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 27%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 3.70. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Como 50% | AS Roma 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 45% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Como 1.36 / AS Roma 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.210 / def 0.860 | AS Roma attack 0.981 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Como (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.99
AS Roma xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs AS Roma kick off?
Como vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs AS Roma?
Como 2 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Como vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs AS Roma part of?
Como vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Como a 45% chance of winning, AS Roma a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Como and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and AS Roma?
Record (3 meetings): Como 1W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Como and AS Roma in?
Como (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Como's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.98x) against Como's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.65
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Como xG
Total xG
2.35
0.99
AS Roma xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Como and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Como and 0.99 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Como's recent record stands at 27W 19D 20L from 66 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 36W 12D 18L across 66 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Como against 1.82 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Como have managed 15W 10D 8L from 33 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 14W 8D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Como are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.42 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Como have gone 27W 19D 20L in their last 66 games (1.52 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 36W 12D 18L in their last 66 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or AS Roma away?
Como's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.67 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Como or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AS Roma in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Como
0
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Como have won 2, AS Roma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Como and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Como 2-1 AS Roma.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 61%, AS Roma 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Como) and 30% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AS Roma in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Como's recent matches and 42% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Como's recent games and 30% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and AS Roma tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Como edge out AS Roma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat AS Roma 2-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.36 xG and AS Roma 0.99 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against AS Roma attack 0.98 / defence 0.88, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 45% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 27%, with Como to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 44%, AS Roma 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.52 PPG, AS Roma 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.