Cagliari 1-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Cagliari welcome Torino to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 1W 3D 4L this season (8 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Torino — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 1W 1D 5L from 7 away outings — 0.57 PPG. Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Cagliari) versus 1.10 (Torino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Torino in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 67% versus Torino 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 60% | Torino 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.04 xG and Torino 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.850 / defence 1.305 | Torino attack 0.481 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.446. Data: 15 Cagliari games / 15 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 38% | Draw 31% | Torino 31%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Torino 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 88% | Torino 29%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 38% | Draw 31% | Torino 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Cagliari 1.04 / Torino 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.850 / def 1.305 | Torino attack 0.481 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Torino xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Torino kick off?
Cagliari vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Torino?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Torino.
Where is Cagliari vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Torino part of?
Cagliari vs Torino is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 38% chance of winning, Torino a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cagliari and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Torino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Torino in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Torino (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
38%
2.64
31%
3.20
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Cagliari xG
Total xG
1.95
0.91
Torino xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.91 for Torino, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 1W 6D 8L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino's form line: 5W 3D 7L from 15 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Torino are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
On the road, Torino have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Torino's season.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.27 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Torino in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 1W 6D 8L in their last 15 games (0.60 PPG), while Torino have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Torino away?
Cagliari's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.71 PPG; Torino away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Torino runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cagliari have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Cagliari's record when hosting Torino specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Cagliari
2
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Torino?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 4, Torino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Cagliari 2-1 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Torino?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Torino see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 86%, Torino 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Cagliari) and 14% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Torino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Cagliari's games and 29% of Torino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Cagliari's recent games and 14% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Torino tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Torino in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Torino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 16, as Cagliari and Torino drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.04 xG and Torino 0.91 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.30 against Torino attack 0.48 / defence 0.96, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 38% | Draw 31% | Torino 31%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 60%, Torino 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Torino arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.