Cagliari 1-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cagliari at 35%, yet in-form Torino provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cagliari vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Cagliari welcome Torino to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
Torino — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Torino's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cagliari have won 1, Torino 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Torino in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 59% versus Torino 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 48% | Torino 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.00 xG and Torino 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.873 / defence 1.214 | Torino attack 0.707 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.088. Data: 21 Cagliari games / 58 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 35% | Draw 33% | Torino 31%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Torino 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Torino (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 70% | Torino 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 35% | Draw 33% | Torino 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Cagliari 1.00 / Torino 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.873 / def 1.214 | Torino attack 0.707 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Torino xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Torino kick off?
Cagliari vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 January 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Torino?
Cagliari 1 - 2 Torino.
Where is Cagliari vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Torino part of?
Cagliari vs Torino is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 35% chance of winning, Torino a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cagliari and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Torino?
Record (3 meetings): Cagliari 1W | Draws 2 | Torino 0W.
What form are Cagliari and Torino in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Torino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
35%
2.85
33%
2.99
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Cagliari xG
Total xG
1.94
0.93
Torino xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.93 for Torino, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 19W 22D 17L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino's form line: 21W 18D 19L from 58 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.36 PPG, Torino on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.90 PPG from 29 outings (15W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Torino have gone 11W 7D 11L from 29 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.03 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Torino in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 19W 22D 17L in their last 58 games (1.36 PPG), while Torino have gone 21W 18D 19L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Torino away?
Cagliari's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.90 PPG; Torino away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Torino in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Torino runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cagliari have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Cagliari's record when hosting Torino specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Cagliari
2
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Torino?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 4, Torino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Cagliari 2-1 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Torino?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 72%, Torino 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cagliari) and 38% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 34%; Torino in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Torino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Cagliari's games and 45% of Torino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cagliari's recent games and 38% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Torino tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Torino in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Torino defy the odds to beat Cagliari 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Cagliari 1-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.00 xG and Torino 0.93 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Torino outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against Torino attack 0.71 / defence 0.81, drawn from 21/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 35% | Draw 33% | Torino 31%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 48%, Torino 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.36 PPG, Torino 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.