Cagliari 1-2 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cagliari take on Sassuolo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Sassuolo meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 30 October 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Sassuolo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Cagliari are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Cagliari winning.
The historical record gives Cagliari a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sassuolo half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 50% versus Sassuolo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Sassuolo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.05 xG and Sassuolo 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.842 / defence 1.121 | Sassuolo attack 0.828 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.058. Data: 46 Cagliari games / 8 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 34% | Draw 35% | Sassuolo 31%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Sassuolo 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 40% | Sassuolo 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 34% | Draw 35% | Sassuolo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Cagliari 1.05 / Sassuolo 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.842 / def 1.121 | Sassuolo attack 0.828 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sassuolo xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Sassuolo kick off?
Cagliari vs Sassuolo kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 30 October 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Cagliari 1 - 2 Sassuolo.
Where is Cagliari vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Sassuolo part of?
Cagliari vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 34% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cagliari and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Sassuolo?
Record (4 meetings): Cagliari 3W | Draws 1 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Cagliari and Sassuolo in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.84x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.83x) against Cagliari's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
35%
2.84
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.03
0.98
Sassuolo xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.98 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari's recent record stands at 11W 12D 23L from 46 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 28W 8D 10L across 46 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sassuolo by 1.02 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 7W 5D 11L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 12W 6D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.87 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Sassuolo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 11W 12D 23L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 28W 8D 10L in their last 46 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Sassuolo away?
Sassuolo's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.13 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sassuolo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cagliari
1
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Sassuolo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 3, Sassuolo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Sassuolo 2-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Sassuolo?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 44%, Sassuolo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cagliari) and 52% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo in 39%; Cagliari have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cagliari's recent matches and 61% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cagliari's recent games and 52% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sassuolo defy the odds to beat Cagliari 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Cagliari 1-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.05 xG and Sassuolo 0.98 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sassuolo outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Sassuolo attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 34% | Draw 35% | Sassuolo 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sassuolo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Sassuolo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.