Cagliari 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salernitana make the trip to Unipol Domus to face Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 26 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 1W 2D 4L at Unipol Domus — 0.71 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salernitana (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Salernitana have posted 1W 0D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Cagliari, 0.70 for Salernitana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 69% versus Salernitana 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cagliari 69% | Salernitana 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.65 xG and Salernitana 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.894 / defence 1.302 | Salernitana attack 0.667 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.409. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Cagliari games / 13 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 47% | Draw 24% | Salernitana 28%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Salernitana 3.57. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 86% | Salernitana 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 47% | Draw 24% | Salernitana 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Cagliari 1.65 / Salernitana 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.894 / def 1.302 | Salernitana attack 0.667 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Salernitana xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Salernitana kick off?
Cagliari vs Salernitana kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Salernitana?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Cagliari vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Salernitana part of?
Cagliari vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 47% chance of winning, Salernitana a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cagliari and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Salernitana in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.89) and Salernitana's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.67x) against Cagliari's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.12
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.87
1.22
Salernitana xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
5%
18.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.22 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari come into this having played 13 games, going 1W 4D 8L for 0.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.54 PPG from 13 outings (2W 1D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.54 PPG for Cagliari against 0.54 for Salernitana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cagliari's home form reads 1W 1D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.77 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 1W 4D 8L in their last 13 games (0.54 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 2W 1D 10L in their last 13 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Salernitana away?
Cagliari's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.67 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cagliari
3
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Salernitana?
From 4 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Salernitana have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Cagliari 4-2 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Salernitana?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Cagliari, 50% for Salernitana — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Cagliari and 83% for Salernitana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Cagliari's games and 50% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Cagliari's matches and 83% of Salernitana's.
Do Cagliari and Salernitana tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 14, as Cagliari and Salernitana drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.65 xG and Salernitana 1.22 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.89 / defence 1.30 against Salernitana attack 0.67 / defence 1.44, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 47% | Draw 24% | Salernitana 28%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 69%, Salernitana 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.54 PPG, Salernitana 0.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.