Bologna 2-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 36%, yet in-form Spezia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bologna vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Spezia at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 21 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Spezia have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Spezia's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Bologna's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bologna, 0 for Spezia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Bologna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Spezia in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 46% versus Spezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 58% | Spezia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.28 xG and Spezia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.775 / defence 1.098 | Spezia attack 0.773 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.403. Bologna's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Bologna games / 25 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 36% | Draw 33% | Spezia 31%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Spezia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Spezia (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 30% | Spezia 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 21 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 36% | Draw 33% | Spezia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Bologna 1.28 / Spezia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.775 / def 1.098 | Spezia attack 0.773 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Bologna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Spezia xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Spezia kick off?
Bologna vs Spezia kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 21 February 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Spezia?
Bologna 2 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Bologna vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Spezia part of?
Bologna vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 36% chance of winning, Spezia a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bologna and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Spezia?
Record (1 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 0 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Bologna and Spezia in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Spezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.78x the league average against Spezia's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
36%
2.80
33%
3.05
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.47
1.19
Spezia xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bologna and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Bologna and 1.19 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 8W 4D 12L from 24 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 13L across 24 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.17 PPG, Spezia on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 5W 2D 5L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spezia's away record stands at 4W 1D 7L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.04 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Spezia in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while Spezia have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Spezia away?
Bologna's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.42 PPG; Spezia away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Bologna or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Spezia in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bologna
1
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Spezia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when Bologna 2-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Spezia?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 33%, Spezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 67% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 33% of games; Spezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 67% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Spezia tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Spezia in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Spezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Spezia 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.28 xG and Spezia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.78 / defence 1.10 against Spezia attack 0.77 / defence 1.47, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 36% | Draw 33% | Spezia 31%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 58%, Spezia 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Spezia's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.17 PPG, Spezia 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.