Bologna 0-2 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Juventus meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 5W 1D 3L from 9 Serie A appearances (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Juventus's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Juventus have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Juventus — key trading statistics (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 53% versus Juventus 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 59% | Juventus 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.09 xG and Juventus 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.959 / defence 1.176 | Juventus attack 0.877 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.456. Data: 17 Bologna games / 17 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 28% | Draw 26% | Juventus 47%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Juventus 2.13. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 44% | Juventus 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 28% | Draw 26% | Juventus 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Bologna 1.09 / Juventus 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.959 / def 1.176 | Juventus attack 0.877 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Juventus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Juventus xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Juventus kick off?
Bologna vs Juventus kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Juventus?
Bologna 0 - 2 Juventus.
Where is Bologna vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Juventus part of?
Bologna vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 28% chance of winning, Juventus a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bologna and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Juventus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Juventus in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Juventus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.96) and Juventus's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.88x) against Bologna's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
28%
3.63
26%
3.88
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.59
1.50
Juventus xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
16.30
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Bologna and 1.50 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 7W 3D 7L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus's form line: 8W 4D 5L from 17 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Bologna against 1.65 for Juventus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.35 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Juventus in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Juventus in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 7W 3D 7L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while Juventus have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Juventus away?
Bologna's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.78 PPG; Juventus away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Bologna or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Juventus in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Bologna
6
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 0, Juventus have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 44%, Juventus 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bologna) and 44% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Juventus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Bologna's games and 67% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Bologna's recent games and 44% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Juventus tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Juventus in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Bologna 0-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.09 xG and Juventus 1.50 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Juventus attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 28% | Draw 26% | Juventus 47%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 59%, Juventus 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.41 PPG, Juventus 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.