Bologna 2-3 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 2L across 8 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Fiorentina have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 5L across 8 road games this term (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Bologna against 1.50 for Fiorentina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 47% versus Fiorentina 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 53% | Fiorentina 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.27 xG and Fiorentina 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.930 / defence 1.037 | Fiorentina attack 0.593 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.402. Data: 15 Bologna games / 15 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 46% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 25%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Fiorentina 4.00. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 38% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 46% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Bologna 1.27 / Fiorentina 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.930 / def 1.037 | Fiorentina attack 0.593 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Bologna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Fiorentina xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Fiorentina kick off?
Bologna vs Fiorentina kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Bologna 2 - 3 Fiorentina.
Where is Bologna vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Fiorentina part of?
Bologna vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 46% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bologna and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Fiorentina in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.93x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.59x) against Bologna's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.47
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.13
0.86
Fiorentina xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bologna and 0.86 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 7W 3D 5L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina's form line: 8W 0D 7L from 15 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Bologna against 1.60 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 3W 0D 5L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.60 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina in 60%.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 games (1.60 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 8W 0D 7L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Fiorentina away?
Bologna's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.00 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Bologna or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
1
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Fiorentina have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Fiorentina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 38%, Fiorentina 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bologna) and 50% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fiorentina in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Bologna 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Bologna 2-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.27 xG and Fiorentina 0.86 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against Fiorentina attack 0.59 / defence 1.10, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 46% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 25%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Fiorentina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 53%, Fiorentina 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.60 PPG, Fiorentina 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.