Bologna 0-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bologna face Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bologna have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 2W 1D 7L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season.
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cagliari's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Bologna's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, Bologna are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Bologna winning.
The historical record gives Bologna a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 51% versus Cagliari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Cagliari 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.23 xG and Cagliari 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.755 / defence 1.144 | Cagliari attack 0.846 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.126. Bologna's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Bologna games / 72 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 39% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 32%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Cagliari 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 30% | Cagliari 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 39% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Bologna 1.23 / Cagliari 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.755 / def 1.144 | Cagliari attack 0.846 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Bologna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Cagliari xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Cagliari kick off?
Bologna vs Cagliari kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Cagliari?
Bologna 0 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Bologna vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Cagliari part of?
Bologna vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 39% chance of winning, Cagliari a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bologna and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cagliari?
Record (7 meetings): Bologna 5W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 2W.
What form are Bologna and Cagliari in?
Bologna (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.76x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.85x) against Bologna's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.52
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.32
1.09
Cagliari xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Bologna and 1.09 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bologna's recent record stands at 30W 20D 22L from 72 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 36L across 72 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 16W 9D 11L from 36 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 6W 10D 20L across 36 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.06 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 30W 20D 22L in their last 72 games (1.53 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 18W 18D 36L in their last 72 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Cagliari away?
Bologna's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.58 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Bologna or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cagliari in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bologna
1
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Cagliari have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Bologna 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Cagliari?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 47%, Cagliari 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 53% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cagliari in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bologna's recent matches and 58% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 53% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Cagliari tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bologna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Cagliari finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.23 xG and Cagliari 1.09 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 39% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 32%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, Cagliari 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.