Bologna 0-2 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bologna at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Atalanta — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.30 PPG, Atalanta 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Bologna have won 3, Atalanta 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Atalanta winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Atalanta trading profile (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Atalanta 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Atalanta 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.31 xG and Atalanta 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.044 / defence 0.900 | Atalanta attack 0.952 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.142. Data: 55 Bologna games / 56 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 44% | Draw 28% | Atalanta 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Atalanta 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | Atalanta 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 44% | Draw 28% | Atalanta 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Bologna 1.31 / Atalanta 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.044 / def 0.900 | Atalanta attack 0.952 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Bologna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Atalanta xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Atalanta kick off?
Bologna vs Atalanta kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 7 January 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Atalanta?
Bologna 0 - 2 Atalanta.
Where is Bologna vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Atalanta part of?
Bologna vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 44% chance of winning, Atalanta a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bologna and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Atalanta?
Record (7 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 3W.
What form are Bologna and Atalanta in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.04x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.58
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.29
0.98
Atalanta xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bologna and 0.98 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 55 games, going 23W 19D 13L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.75 PPG from 55 outings (27W 15D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.60 PPG, Atalanta on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 14W 8D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.85 points per game from 26 outings (14W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.73 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 23W 19D 13L in their last 55 games (1.60 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 27W 15D 13L in their last 55 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Atalanta away?
Bologna's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.92 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Bologna or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Atalanta in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
1
Draws
5
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Atalanta have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Atalanta 1-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 54%, Atalanta 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bologna) and 50% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Atalanta in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bologna's recent matches and 42% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Atalanta tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Bologna 0-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.31 xG and Atalanta 0.98 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Atalanta outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Atalanta attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 44% | Draw 28% | Atalanta 28%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Atalanta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Atalanta 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Atalanta's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.60 PPG, Atalanta 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.