Atalanta 3-2 Empoli – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Atalanta (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Atalanta face Empoli.

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Analysis

Empoli make the trip to Gewiss Stadium to face Atalanta in Serie A (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Atalanta (all games): 10W 0D 0L across their last 10 — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Atalanta have posted 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.40 lags behind their overall 3.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Empoli have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Empoli's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 2.10 in Atalanta's favour (3.00 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Atalanta's last 10 home games and Empoli's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Atalanta's games and 70% of Empoli's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Atalanta, who have won 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Empoli — Empoli have 1 win, with 0 draws.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Atalanta 2–0 Empoli — a Atalanta win.

The head-to-head data gives Atalanta an edge — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading & In-Play

Atalanta — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).

Empoli — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Empoli 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 67% | Empoli 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.19 xG and Empoli 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.619 / defence 0.968 | Empoli attack 1.020 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.322. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.619 — their 2.19 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Atalanta's last 54 games and Empoli's last 54.

Result probabilities: Atalanta 58% | Draw 20% | Empoli 22%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.74 | Draw 4.93 | Empoli 4.50. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.19 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atalanta's last 10 home games and Empoli's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 80% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 70% (last 10 away games).

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