AS Roma 1-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Torino (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for AS Roma, 1.30 for Torino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: AS Roma 2W, Torino 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2022, ended 3–0 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 48% versus Torino 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 48% | Torino 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.24 xG and Torino 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.846 / defence 0.786 | Torino attack 1.086 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.131. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 AS Roma games / 52 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 42% | Draw 31% | Torino 28%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Torino 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 30% | Torino 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 42% | Draw 31% | Torino 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG AS Roma 1.24 / Torino 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.846 / def 0.786 | Torino attack 1.086 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Torino xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Torino kick off?
AS Roma vs Torino kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Torino?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Torino.
Where is AS Roma vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Torino part of?
AS Roma vs Torino is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 42% chance of winning, Torino a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AS Roma and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
Record (2 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 0 | Torino 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Torino in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Torino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AS Roma's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Torino's attack (1.09x) against AS Roma's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.26
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.21
0.96
Torino xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.96 for Torino, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 26W 11D 15L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino's form line: 19W 13D 20L from 52 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for AS Roma against 1.35 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 1.80 PPG from 25 outings (13W 6D 6L).
On the road, Torino have gone 8W 6D 11L from 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.17 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Torino in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 26W 11D 15L in their last 52 games (1.71 PPG), while Torino have gone 19W 13D 20L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Torino away?
AS Roma's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.80 PPG; Torino away: 1.20 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Torino in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-3 on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
2
Draws
1
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Torino have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Torino?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 36%, Torino 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (AS Roma) and 36% (Torino).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; AS Roma have failed to score in 28% of games; Torino in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of AS Roma's recent matches and 52% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of AS Roma's recent games and 36% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Torino tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Torino in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Torino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 15, as AS Roma and Torino drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.24 xG and Torino 0.96 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.85 / defence 0.79 against Torino attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 42% | Draw 31% | Torino 28%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 48%, Torino 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Torino's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.71 PPG, Torino 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.