AS Roma 2-2 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Salernitana travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 May 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Salernitana — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Salernitana away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AS Roma at 1.20 PPG versus Salernitana's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AS Roma have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Salernitana have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with AS Roma winning.
The historical record gives AS Roma a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Salernitana in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 47% versus Salernitana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 44% | Salernitana 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.61 xG and Salernitana 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.062 / defence 0.862 | Salernitana attack 0.890 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.122. Data: 73 AS Roma games / 73 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 54% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 20%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Salernitana 5.00. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 20% | Salernitana 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 54% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG AS Roma 1.61 / Salernitana 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.062 / def 0.862 | Salernitana attack 0.890 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Salernitana xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Salernitana kick off?
AS Roma vs Salernitana kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 22 May 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Salernitana?
AS Roma 2 - 2 Salernitana.
Where is AS Roma vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Salernitana part of?
AS Roma vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 54% chance of winning, Salernitana a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AS Roma and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Salernitana?
Record (3 meetings): AS Roma 3W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Salernitana in?
AS Roma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.85
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.47
0.86
Salernitana xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
4%
25.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.86 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma come into this having played 73 games, going 35W 17D 21L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.95 PPG from 73 outings (15W 24D 34L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Roma's home form reads 20W 8D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.83 points per game from 36 outings (6W 12D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.04 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Salernitana in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 35W 17D 21L in their last 73 games (1.67 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 15W 24D 34L in their last 73 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Salernitana away?
AS Roma's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.89 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.83 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Salernitana in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Salernitana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when AS Roma won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Salernitana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2024, when Salernitana 1-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Salernitana?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 33%, Salernitana 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (AS Roma) and 53% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Salernitana in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AS Roma's recent matches and 61% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of AS Roma's recent games and 53% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Salernitana tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Salernitana share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma and Salernitana finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.61 xG and Salernitana 0.86 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Salernitana outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.06 / defence 0.86 against Salernitana attack 0.89 / defence 1.16, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 54% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 20%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 44%, Salernitana 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Salernitana's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.