AS Roma 1-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Monza meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Monza have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Monza have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AS Roma lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Monza — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Monza 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 48% | Monza 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.86 xG and Monza 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.385 / defence 0.962 | Monza attack 0.868 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.158. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 AS Roma games / 46 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Monza 18%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Monza 5.56. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 50% | Monza 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Monza 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG AS Roma 1.86 / Monza 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.385 / def 0.962 | Monza attack 0.868 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Monza xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Monza kick off?
AS Roma vs Monza kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Monza?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Monza.
Where is AS Roma vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Monza part of?
AS Roma vs Monza is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 57% chance of winning, Monza a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AS Roma and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Monza?
Record (2 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 1 | Monza 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Monza in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Monza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.39) and Monza's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.87x) against AS Roma's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
57%
1.75
25%
4.01
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.83
0.97
Monza xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
3%
35.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.97 for Monza, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Monza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 21W 11D 14L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza's form line: 17W 13D 16L from 46 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for AS Roma against 1.39 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 1.87 PPG from 23 outings (13W 4D 6L).
On the road, Monza have gone 8W 6D 9L from 23 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.22 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Monza in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 21W 11D 14L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while Monza have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Monza away?
AS Roma's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.87 PPG; Monza away: 1.30 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Monza in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-0 on 24 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Monza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when AS Roma 4-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Monza?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 35%, Monza 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AS Roma) and 44% (Monza).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Monza in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of AS Roma's recent matches and 44% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AS Roma's recent games and 44% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Monza tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Monza in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Monza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Monza 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.86 xG and Monza 0.97 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Monza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.39 / defence 0.96 against Monza attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 57% | Draw 25% | Monza 18%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 48%, Monza 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Monza's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.61 PPG, Monza 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.