AS Roma 0-2 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Atalanta meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, AS Roma have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Atalanta's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atalanta's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Atalanta arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for AS Roma, 3 for Atalanta and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended AS Roma 1–2 Atalanta — a Atalanta win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 61% versus Atalanta 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 57% | Atalanta 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.18 xG and Atalanta 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.002 / defence 0.945 | Atalanta attack 1.338 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.276. Atalanta have an above-average attack rating of 1.338, which lifts their away xG to 1.61. Data: built from AS Roma's last 51 games and Atalanta's last 51.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 28% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 47%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 3.64 | Draw 3.93 | Atalanta 2.12. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Atalanta's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AS Roma 50% (last 10 home games) | Atalanta 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 2 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 28% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG AS Roma 1.18 / Atalanta 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.002 / def 0.945 | Atalanta attack 1.338 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Atalanta xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Atalanta kick off?
AS Roma vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 2 December 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma 0 - 2 Atalanta.
Where is AS Roma vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Atalanta part of?
AS Roma vs Atalanta is a Serie A fixture (matchday 14) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 28% chance of winning, Atalanta a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AS Roma and Atalanta will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Roma vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.00) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.34x) against AS Roma's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 51 games and Atalanta's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
28%
3.64
25%
3.93
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.80
1.61
Atalanta xG
3.64
28%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
5%
18.28
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.61 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 21W 13D 17L from 51 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 30W 7D 14L across 51 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Roma heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 15W 4D 6L from their last 25 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atalanta's away record stands at 11W 5D 9L across their last 25 away games, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 2.08 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Atalanta in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Atalanta (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 21W 13D 17L in their last 51 games (1.49 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 30W 7D 14L in their last 51 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Atalanta away?
AS Roma's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.96 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.52 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Atalanta in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AS Roma and Atalanta, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
2
Draws
6
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 2, Atalanta have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Atalanta last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 56%, Atalanta 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for AS Roma and 68% for Atalanta. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Atalanta matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of AS Roma's games and 56% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AS Roma and Atalanta matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of AS Roma's matches and 68% of Atalanta's.
Do AS Roma and Atalanta matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of AS Roma's recent matches and 88% of Atalanta's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat AS Roma 0-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.18 xG and Atalanta 1.61 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AS Roma fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Atalanta attack 1.34 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 28% | Draw 25% | Atalanta 47%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 57%, Atalanta 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Atalanta's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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