Waterford 0-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 35%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Waterford (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Waterford at Regional Sports Centre this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.90 PPG clear of Waterford in recent Premier Division fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waterford lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Waterford — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 54% versus St Patrick's Athl. 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | St Patrick's Athl. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.03 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.791 / defence 0.957 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.996 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 0.998. Waterford's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Waterford games / 43 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 35% | Draw 35% | St Patrick's Athl. 31%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 35% | Draw 35% | St Patrick's Athl. 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Waterford 1.03 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.791 / def 0.957 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.996 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.373 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
0.95
St Patrick's Athl. xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Waterford 0 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 35% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (6 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 2 | St Patrick's Athl. 3W.
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waterford's attack at 0.79x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (1.00x) against Waterford's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
35%
2.88
35%
2.89
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Waterford xG
Total xG
1.98
0.95
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Waterford and 0.95 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waterford's recent record stands at 25W 11D 36L from 72 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 30W 21D 21L across 72 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Waterford against 1.54 for St Patrick's Athl.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 13W 6D 16L from 35 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 10W 11D 14L across 35 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Waterford are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.29 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Waterford's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.29 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Waterford or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Waterford
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 60%, St Patrick's Athl. 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Waterford) and 46% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 37%; Waterford have failed to score in 29% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Waterford's recent matches and 43% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Waterford's recent games and 46% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Waterford 0-2 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.03 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.95 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Waterford fell 1.0 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.79 / defence 0.96 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 35% | Draw 35% | St Patrick's Athl. 31%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 56%, St Patrick's Athl. 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.19 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.