Waterford 0-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 38%, yet in-form Shelbourne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waterford vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Waterford welcome Shelbourne to Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 2). Kick-off is Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Waterford — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Waterford are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Shelbourne have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shelbourne — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Waterford, 2 for Shelbourne and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2024, ended Waterford 1–3 Shelbourne — a Shelbourne win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Waterford in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 51% versus Shelbourne 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 51% | Shelbourne 32%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Waterford surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Shelbourne have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.19 xG and Shelbourne 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.984 / defence 1.003 | Shelbourne attack 0.959 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.067. Data: built from Waterford's last 37 games and Shelbourne's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Waterford 38% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 30%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.62 | Draw 3.14 | Shelbourne 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waterford at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shelbourne (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waterford's last 10 home games and Shelbourne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Waterford 60% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Waterford 37 games, Shelbourne 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 2 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 38% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Waterford 1.19 / Shelbourne 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.984 / def 1.003 | Shelbourne attack 0.959 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Waterford (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Shelbourne xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Shelbourne kick off?
Waterford vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Waterford 0 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Waterford vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shelbourne part of?
Waterford vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 2) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 38% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Waterford and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Waterford vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 37 games and Shelbourne's last 37, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.14
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.21
1.03
Shelbourne xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Waterford and 1.03 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 37 games, going 14W 6D 17L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.78 PPG from 37 outings (18W 12D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waterford's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across their last 19 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.74 points per game from their last 19 away games (9W 6D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.19 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
Waterford (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 18W 12D 7L in their last 37 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.47 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Waterford or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Waterford have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Waterford's record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
2
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 3, Shelbourne have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Shelbourne 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waterford see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 63%, Shelbourne 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Waterford) and 26% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 37%; Waterford have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Shelbourne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Waterford's games and 47% of Shelbourne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waterford and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Waterford's recent games and 26% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Waterford's recent matches and 63% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Waterford 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Waterford 0-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.19 xG and Shelbourne 1.03 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Waterford fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Shelbourne attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 38% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 30%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 51%, Shelbourne 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shelbourne's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.