Waterford 2-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (34%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Waterford face Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Derry City at Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Waterford — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Regional Sports Centre, Waterford have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derry City — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Derry City, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for Waterford.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 2–4 with Derry City winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Derry City have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Derry City in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 54% versus Derry City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.02 xG and Derry City 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.853 / defence 1.105 | Derry City attack 0.805 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.212. Data: 51 Waterford games / 52 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 32% | Draw 34% | Derry City 34%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Derry City 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 70% | Derry City 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 32% | Draw 34% | Derry City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Waterford 1.02 / Derry City 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.853 / def 1.105 | Derry City attack 0.805 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Derry City xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Derry City kick off?
Waterford vs Derry City kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 15 May 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Waterford 2 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Waterford vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Derry City part of?
Waterford vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 32% chance of winning, Derry City a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Waterford and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
Record (8 meetings): Waterford 2W | Draws 0 | Derry City 6W.
What form are Waterford and Derry City in?
Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
32%
3.16
34%
2.96
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.10
1.08
Derry City xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Waterford and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Waterford and 1.08 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 11D 36L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.64 PPG from 72 outings (32W 22D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Derry City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waterford's home form reads 13W 6D 16L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.46 points per game from 35 outings (14W 9D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.39 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Derry City in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.29 PPG; Derry City away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Waterford or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Derry City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waterford and Derry City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
1
Draws
6
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 3, Derry City have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Derry City 2-4 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 60%, Derry City 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Waterford) and 37% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 37%; Waterford have failed to score in 29% of games; Derry City in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Waterford's recent matches and 43% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Waterford's recent games and 37% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Derry City tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Derry City in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Derry City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 17, as Waterford and Derry City drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.02 xG and Derry City 1.08 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derry City outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Derry City attack 0.81 / defence 0.80, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 32% | Draw 34% | Derry City 34%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 56%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.