Waterford 2-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 18 as Waterford welcome Bohemians to Waterford Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Waterford have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bohemians's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Waterford) versus 1.30 (Bohemians). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Waterford, 0 for Bohemians and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Waterford winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.37 xG and Bohemians 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.199 / defence 1.279 | Bohemians attack 1.138 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.008. Data: 17 Waterford games / 53 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 35% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 40%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 31 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 35% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Waterford 1.37 / Bohemians 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.199 / def 1.279 | Bohemians attack 1.138 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Bohemians xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Bohemians kick off?
Waterford vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 31 May 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Waterford 2 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Waterford vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Bohemians part of?
Waterford vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 35% chance of winning, Bohemians a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Waterford and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
Record (1 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 0W.
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in?
Waterford (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
35%
2.84
25%
3.99
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.84
1.47
Bohemians xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Waterford and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Waterford and 1.47 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Waterford have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Waterford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W. It's still early in the season for Bohemians, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.50 PPG, Bohemians on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Bohemians's attacking output running into Waterford's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 0%.
Defensively: Bohemians in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Early Season
Bohemians
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Waterford or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bohemians in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Waterford
2
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 5, Bohemians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bohemians 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Bohemians?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Waterford's recent matches and 0% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 50% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Bohemians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Bohemians 2-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.37 xG and Bohemians 1.47 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.20 / defence 1.28 against Bohemians attack 1.14 / defence 0.98, drawn from 17/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 35% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 40%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Bohemians 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.50 PPG, Bohemians 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.