UCD 0-3 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 59%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this UCD vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
UCD and Shamrock Rovers meet at UCD Bowl in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 19 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
UCD's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward UCD. A 0.80 PPG lead over Shamrock Rovers (3.00 vs 2.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — UCD lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.73 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.702 / defence 1.199 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.135 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.205. UCD's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 UCD games / 52 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 16% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 59%. Fair-value odds: UCD 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Shamrock Rovers 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 16% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG UCD 0.73 / Shamrock Rovers 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.702 / def 1.199 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.135 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Shamrock Rovers xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
UCD vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 19 May 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Shamrock Rovers?
UCD 0 - 3 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is UCD vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
UCD vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 16% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both UCD and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (1 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 0 | Shamrock Rovers 1W.
What form are UCD and Shamrock Rovers in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from UCD's attack rating (0.70) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.14x) against UCD's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 15/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
16%
6.20
25%
4.01
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
UCD xG
Total xG
2.37
1.64
Shamrock Rovers xG
6.20
16%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
3%
31.98
28%
3.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 15.3 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are UCD and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for UCD and 1.64 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Shamrock Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, UCD have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for UCD against 3.00 for Shamrock Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
UCD are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. UCD's scoring rate against Shamrock Rovers's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: UCD have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Shamrock Rovers in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Early Season
Shamrock Rovers
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 on 9 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
1
Draws
7
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Shamrock Rovers?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, Shamrock Rovers have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2023, when UCD 0-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of UCD's games and 100% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is UCD vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of UCD's matches and 100% of Shamrock Rovers's.
Do UCD and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shamrock Rovers run riot with a 0-3 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat UCD 0-3 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.73 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.64 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.70 / defence 1.20 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.14 / defence 0.81, drawn from 15/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 16% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 59%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 100%, Shamrock Rovers 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — UCD 3.00 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. UCD managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.