UCD 0-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 39%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this UCD vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 2 as UCD welcome Finn Harps to UCD Bowl. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
UCD — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Finn Harps's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
UCD carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. UCD register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Finn Harps in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.33 xG and Finn Harps 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Finn Harps attack 1.026 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.175. Data: 1 UCD games / 36 Finn Harps games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: UCD 36% | Draw 26% | Finn Harps 39%. Fair-value odds: UCD 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Finn Harps 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 36% | Draw 26% | Finn Harps 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG UCD 1.33 / Finn Harps 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Finn Harps attack 1.026 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Finn Harps xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Finn Harps kick off?
UCD vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 February 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Finn Harps?
UCD 0 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is UCD vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Finn Harps part of?
UCD vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 36% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both UCD and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Finn Harps?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are UCD and Finn Harps in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
UCD's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Finn Harps's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus UCD's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.89
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
UCD xG
Total xG
2.71
1.39
Finn Harps xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are UCD and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for UCD and 1.39 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, UCD have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Finn Harps's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Finn Harps, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: UCD on 3.00 PPG, Finn Harps on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
UCD are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 5.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. UCD's scoring rate against Finn Harps's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: UCD have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Finn Harps in 0%.
Defensively: Finn Harps in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Early Season
Finn Harps
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have UCD or Finn Harps been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Finn Harps in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between UCD and Finn Harps runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: UCD have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
UCD's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
UCD
1
Draws
0
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Finn Harps?
From 4 meetings on record, UCD have won 3, Finn Harps have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2022, when Finn Harps 1-3 UCD.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Finn Harps?
UCD have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Finn Harps?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of UCD's recent matches and 0% of Finn Harps's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of UCD's matches and 100% of Finn Harps's.
Do UCD and Finn Harps tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at UCD's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 2, as UCD and Finn Harps drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 1.33 xG and Finn Harps 1.39 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. UCD fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Finn Harps landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Finn Harps attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 1/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 36% | Draw 26% | Finn Harps 39%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 100%, Finn Harps 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — UCD 3.00 PPG, Finn Harps 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. UCD managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Finn Harps managed 0 against a 5.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.