St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.

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Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 13 June 2024 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 0 for Shamrock Rovers and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 46% versus Shamrock Rovers 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Shamrock Rovers 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 0.98 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.052 / defence 1.141 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.077 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 0.986. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 St Patrick's Athl. games / 56 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 41%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Shamrock Rovers 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Shamrock Rovers 30% BTTS from recent games.

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