St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 41%, yet in-form Dundalk provide a compelling counter-argument — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Dundalk travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 July 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Dundalk's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Dundalk trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 48% versus Dundalk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.11 xG and Dundalk 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.055 / defence 1.024 | Dundalk attack 0.775 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.066. Dundalk's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 St Patrick's Athl. games / 58 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 41% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 28%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Dundalk 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Dundalk 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 41% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.11 / Dundalk 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.055 / def 1.024 | Dundalk attack 0.775 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Dundalk xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 July 2022 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 41% chance of winning, Dundalk a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Dundalk (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.05x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
41%
2.42
31%
3.23
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.95
0.85
Dundalk xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
9%
10.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.85 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 28W 12D 18L from 58 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 17L across 58 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.66 PPG, Dundalk on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 17W 4D 8L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 6W 13D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.29 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 28W 12D 18L in their last 58 games (1.66 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 24W 17D 17L in their last 58 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Dundalk away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.90 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.07 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dundalk in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 41%, Dundalk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 34% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Dundalk in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 52% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 34% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 24, as St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.11 xG and Dundalk 0.85 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Dundalk attack 0.78 / defence 0.78, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 41% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 28%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 52%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.66 PPG, Dundalk 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.