Sligo Rovers 0-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sligo Rovers at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sligo Rovers vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 28 as Sligo Rovers welcome Waterford to Showgrounds. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Sligo Rovers have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 2W 4D 4L at Showgrounds — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waterford — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Waterford have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Waterford's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Sligo Rovers's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sligo Rovers register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waterford in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Sligo Rovers, 3 for Waterford and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2026, ended 0–4 with Waterford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Waterford in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 51% versus Waterford 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 49% | Waterford 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.73 xG and Waterford 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.936 / defence 1.235 | Waterford attack 1.129 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.224. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Sligo Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Sligo Rovers games / 63 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 28% | Waterford 36%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Waterford 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Sligo Rovers dominate the H2H record, yet Waterford are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 60% | Waterford 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 28% | Waterford 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 70% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.73 / Waterford 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.936 / def 1.235 | Waterford attack 1.129 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Waterford xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Waterford kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Waterford kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Waterford part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 36% chance of winning, Waterford a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Waterford?
Record (9 meetings): Sligo Rovers 5W | Draws 1 | Waterford 3W.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Waterford in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Waterford (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sligo Rovers's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.56
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
3.44
1.71
Waterford xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
7%
15.16
6%
15.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.71 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 63 games, going 16W 15D 32L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Sligo Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waterford sit at 1.06 PPG from 63 outings (17W 16D 30L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sligo Rovers on 1.00 PPG, Waterford on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 8W 10D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Waterford have taken 0.87 points per game from 31 outings (7W 6D 18L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.22 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Blended
Waterford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Waterford in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 15D 32L in their last 63 games (1.00 PPG), while Waterford have gone 17W 16D 30L in their last 63 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Waterford away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.10 PPG; Waterford away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Sligo Rovers won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 5, Waterford have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Sligo Rovers 0-0 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Waterford?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 55%, Waterford 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sligo Rovers) and 55% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 29% of games; Waterford in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Waterford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Sligo Rovers's games and 58% of Waterford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 55% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Waterford tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Waterford in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sligo Rovers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 28, as Sligo Rovers and Waterford drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.73 xG and Waterford 1.71 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Waterford landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.94 / defence 1.24 against Waterford attack 1.13 / defence 1.28, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 28% | Waterford 36%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Waterford 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Waterford's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.00 PPG, Waterford 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.