Sligo Rovers 1-0 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sligo Rovers (61%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sligo Rovers face Longford Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sligo Rovers host Longford Town at The Showgrounds in Premier Division (matchday 30). Kick-off is Monday 1 November 2021 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Sligo Rovers — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sligo Rovers at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Longford Town stand at 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Longford Town have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sligo Rovers are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Sligo Rovers hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Longford Town and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Jul 2021, ended Sligo Rovers 1–0 Longford Town — a Sligo Rovers win.
The head-to-head data gives Sligo Rovers an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Sligo Rovers trading profile (last 32 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Longford Town trading profile (last 32 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 44% versus Longford Town 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sligo Rovers 31% | Longford Town 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.72 xG and Longford Town 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.981 / defence 0.939 | Longford Town attack 0.681 / defence 1.572. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.121. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.572 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sligo Rovers's projected output up. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.681 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 32 games and Longford Town's last 32.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 61% | Draw 23% | Longford Town 15%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 1.63 | Draw 4.28 | Longford Town 6.57. The model has a clear lean to Sligo Rovers (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 40% (last 10 home games) | Longford Town 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 30 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Monday 1 November 2021 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 61% | Draw 23% | Longford Town 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Sligo Rovers 1.72 / Longford Town 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.981 / def 0.939 | Longford Town attack 0.681 / def 1.572 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Longford Town xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 1 November 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 0 Longford Town.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 30) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 61% chance of winning, Longford Town a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Longford Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sligo Rovers's attack rating (0.98) and Longford Town's defence rating (1.57), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 32 games and Longford Town's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.28
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.44
0.72
Longford Town xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
3%
36.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.72 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sligo Rovers's recent record stands at 14W 8D 10L from 32 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Longford Town, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 22L across 32 games — 0.44 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sligo Rovers by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Longford Town heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sligo Rovers have managed 7W 3D 5L from their last 15 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Longford Town's away record stands at 0W 5D 10L across their last 15 away games, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Longford Town are on 0.66 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Longford Town
Current Season
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs Longford Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Longford Town
Current Season
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and Longford Town in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 14W 8D 10L in their last 32 games (1.56 PPG), while Longford Town have gone 2W 8D 22L in their last 32 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Longford Town away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.60 PPG; Longford Town away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Longford Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Longford Town in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 1 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sligo Rovers have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sligo Rovers
0
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Longford Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 4, Longford Town have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Longford Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2021: Sligo Rovers 1-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Longford Town?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 40%, Longford Town 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sligo Rovers) and 47% (Longford Town).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Longford Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Longford Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and Longford Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 60% of Longford Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sligo Rovers and Longford Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 47% of Longford Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Longford Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 73% of Longford Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Longford Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Longford Town 1-0 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.72 xG and Longford Town 0.72 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Longford Town attack 0.68 / defence 1.57, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 61% | Draw 23% | Longford Town 15%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 31%, Longford Town 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Longford Town's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Longford Town (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.