Sligo Rovers 2-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 August 2022 at 16:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 4W 3D 3L at The Showgrounds — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.40 for Bohemians. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sligo Rovers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bohemians in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Bohemians — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 49% versus Bohemians 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 41% | Bohemians 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.32 xG and Bohemians 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.058 / defence 1.037 | Bohemians attack 1.064 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.086. Data: 59 Sligo Rovers games / 59 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 39% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 33%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 60% | Bohemians 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 39% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.32 / Bohemians 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.058 / def 1.037 | Bohemians attack 1.064 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bohemians xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 16:45 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Sligo Rovers 2 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 39% chance of winning, Bohemians a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 1.06x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.06x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.56
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.52
1.20
Bohemians xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
9%
11.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.20 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 17D 18L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Sligo Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.42 PPG from 59 outings (22W 18D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.42 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 13W 9D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.54 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 66%.
Last 59 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 18L in their last 59 games (1.51 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 22W 18D 19L in their last 59 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.60 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bohemians in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Bohemians have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 50%, Bohemians 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Sligo Rovers) and 40% (Bohemians).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sligo Rovers's games and 63% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 40% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Bohemians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Bohemians 2-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.32 xG and Bohemians 1.20 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Bohemians attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 39% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 33%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 41%, Bohemians 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.51 PPG, Bohemians 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.