Sligo Rovers 0-3 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Sligo Rovers take on Bohemians.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 5W 1D 4L at The Showgrounds — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Showgrounds. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bohemians are 0.60 PPG clear of Sligo Rovers in recent Premier Division fixtures (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 50% versus Bohemians 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 49% | Bohemians 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.90 xG and Bohemians 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.758 / defence 0.804 | Bohemians attack 0.981 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 0.916. Sligo Rovers's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Sligo Rovers games / 51 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 38% | Bohemians 26%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Bohemians 3.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Bohemians's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 10% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 38% | Bohemians 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 32% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.90 / Bohemians 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.758 / def 0.804 | Bohemians attack 0.981 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.126 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Bohemians xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 3 Bohemians.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 36% chance of winning, Bohemians a 26% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.76x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.98x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.76
38%
2.64
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.62
0.72
Bohemians xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.7 | 14.2 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.4%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.72 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 24W 17D 31L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.44 PPG from 72 outings (28W 20D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.44 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 16W 9D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.22 points per game from 36 outings (11W 11D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.36 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 31L in their last 72 games (1.24 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.58 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Bohemians have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 42%, Bohemians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sligo Rovers) and 36% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 36% of games; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 36% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Sligo Rovers 0-3 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.90 xG and Bohemians 0.72 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bohemians outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.76 / defence 0.80 against Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 36% | Draw 38% | Bohemians 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, Bohemians 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.24 PPG, Bohemians 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.