Shelbourne 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tolka Park to face Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 21 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shelbourne at Tolka Park this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dundalk away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.40 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Dundalk 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 42% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.99 xG and Dundalk 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.894 / defence 0.724 | Dundalk attack 0.751 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.184. Shelbourne's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Shelbourne games / 46 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 43% | Draw 34% | Dundalk 23%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Dundalk 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Dundalk's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.63 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 40% | Dundalk 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 43% | Draw 34% | Dundalk 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 30% | xG Shelbourne 0.99 / Dundalk 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.894 / def 0.724 | Dundalk attack 0.751 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Dundalk xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Dundalk kick off?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Shelbourne vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Dundalk part of?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 43% chance of winning, Dundalk a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Shelbourne and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.75x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
43%
2.35
34%
2.93
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
1.63
0.64
Dundalk xG
2.35
43%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.36
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6 | 12.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.2%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.64 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 36 games, going 10W 11D 15L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.75 PPG from 36 outings (17W 12D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Dundalk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 5W 6D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.39 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Dundalk in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 17W 12D 7L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Dundalk away?
Dundalk's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.17 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Dundalk in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
3
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, Dundalk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 44%, Dundalk 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 33% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 33%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 39% of games; Dundalk in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 39% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 33% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and Dundalk finished level at 1-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.99 xG and Dundalk 0.64 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.89 / defence 0.72 against Dundalk attack 0.75 / defence 0.85, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 43% | Draw 34% | Dundalk 23%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 42%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.