Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Longford Town at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shamrock Rovers face Longford Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Longford Town travel to Tallaght Stadium to take on Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2021 at 19:00 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.13 xG and Longford Town 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.145 / defence 1.118 | Longford Town attack 0.948 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 0.747 / away 1.210. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Data: built from Shamrock Rovers's last 4 games and Longford Town's last 4. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 32% | Draw 29% | Longford Town 39%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 3.17 | Draw 3.41 | Longford Town 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Longford Town as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Longford Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Shamrock Rovers 4 games, Longford Town 4) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 5 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 April 2021 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 32% | Draw 29% | Longford Town 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.13 / Longford Town 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.145 / def 1.118 | Longford Town attack 0.948 / def 1.316 | league avg home 0.747 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Longford Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Longford Town xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town FAQs
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 17 April 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 1 Longford Town.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 5) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 32% chance of winning, Longford Town a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Longford Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Longford Town's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shamrock Rovers's last 4 games and Longford Town's last 4, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Longford Town Win
32%
3.17
29%
3.41
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.41
1.28
Longford Town xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.28 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Shamrock Rovers (Home) vs Longford Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 23 October 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Shamrock Rovers
0
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, Longford Town have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2021: Longford Town 0-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Shamrock Rovers defy the odds to beat Longford Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Longford Town 2-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.13 xG and Longford Town 1.28 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Longford Town attack 0.95 / defence 1.32, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 32% | Draw 29% | Longford Town 39%, with Longford Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.