Shamrock Rovers 5-1 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (74%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shamrock Rovers face Finn Harps.

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Match Analysis

Shamrock Rovers host Finn Harps at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 11 September 2022 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Shamrock Rovers stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Shamrock Rovers's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Finn Harps — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Finn Harps's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Shamrock Rovers are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Shamrock Rovers: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Finn Harps, with 1 draw.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Jul 2022, ended Shamrock Rovers 1–0 Finn Harps — a Shamrock Rovers win.

The head-to-head data gives Shamrock Rovers an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Finn Harps in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 48% versus Finn Harps 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 44% | Finn Harps 64%). Note also that Finn Harps surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Shamrock Rovers recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 2.34 xG and Finn Harps 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.206 / defence 0.745 | Finn Harps attack 0.923 / defence 1.474. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.006. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.474 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Shamrock Rovers have a tight defence (rating 0.745), which is pulling Finn Harps's projected output down. Data: built from Shamrock Rovers's last 63 games and Finn Harps's last 64.

Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Finn Harps 9%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.35 | Draw 6.09 | Finn Harps 10.81. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (74%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shamrock Rovers's last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shamrock Rovers 40% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 70% (last 10 away games).

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