Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 25 August 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 1.70 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shamrock Rovers lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2023, ended 0–2 with Dundalk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 43% versus Dundalk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 48% | Dundalk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.74 xG and Dundalk 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.215 / defence 0.962 | Dundalk attack 1.010 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.106. Data: 63 Shamrock Rovers games / 63 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 22%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Dundalk 4.55. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Shamrock Rovers 50% | Dundalk 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Aug 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.74 / Dundalk 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.215 / def 0.962 | Dundalk attack 1.010 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Dundalk xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 August 2023 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 52% chance of winning, Dundalk a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Record (3 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 2W | Draws 0 | Dundalk 1W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Dundalk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (1.01x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.91
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.81
1.07
Dundalk xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
4%
25.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.07 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 63 games, going 38W 16D 9L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.68 PPG from 63 outings (29W 19D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.06 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 1.68 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 24W 5D 2L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.06 PPG overall — Shamrock Rovers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (10W 9D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.43 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 38W 16D 9L in their last 63 games (2.06 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 29W 19D 15L in their last 63 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.48 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Dundalk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 52%, Dundalk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Shamrock Rovers) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Dundalk in 32%; Dundalk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 42% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Dundalk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Dundalk 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.74 xG and Dundalk 1.07 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against Dundalk attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 22%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 48%, Dundalk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dundalk's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shamrock Rovers 2.06 PPG, Dundalk 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.