Shamrock Rovers 2-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 44%, yet in-form Shamrock Rovers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 5 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Shamrock Rovers's favour (2.30 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 49% versus Bohemians 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 44% | Bohemians 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.20 xG and Bohemians 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.311 / defence 1.164 | Bohemians attack 1.035 / defence 0.687. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.237. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 1.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.687 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Shamrock Rovers games / 49 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 31% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 44%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shamrock Rovers (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Bohemians 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 31% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.20 / Bohemians 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.311 / def 1.164 | Bohemians attack 1.035 / def 0.687 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Bohemians xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 31% chance of winning, Bohemians a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.03x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
31%
3.27
26%
3.89
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.69
1.49
Bohemians xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.49 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Shamrock Rovers have picked up 2.18 PPG on a 48W 13D 11L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 26W 20D 26L from 72 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2.53 PPG from 36 outings (28W 7D 1L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 10W 11D 15L from 36 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.46 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 64%.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 48W 13D 11L in their last 72 games (2.18 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.53 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bohemians in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
5
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, Bohemians have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 56%, Bohemians 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 64% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Bohemians 2-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.20 xG and Bohemians 1.49 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.31 / defence 1.16 against Bohemians attack 1.03 / defence 0.69, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 31% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 44%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 44%, Bohemians 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.