Longford Town 0-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Longford Town face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 32 as Longford Town welcome Shamrock Rovers to Bishopsgate Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Longford Town — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Longford Town have posted 1W 1D 8L at Bishopsgate Stadium — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shamrock Rovers stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Shamrock Rovers's 2.20 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Longford Town's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shamrock Rovers, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Longford Town.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
It is worth noting that Shamrock Rovers have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Longford Town in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Shamrock Rovers in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Longford Town 47% versus Shamrock Rovers 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Longford Town 43% | Shamrock Rovers 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.62 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.634 / defence 1.524 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.903 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.151. Longford Town's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Longford Town games / 31 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Longford Town 14% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 61%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 7.14 | Draw 4.00 | Shamrock Rovers 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Longford Town 40% | Shamrock Rovers 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 14% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 37% | xG Longford Town 0.62 / Shamrock Rovers 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.634 / def 1.524 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.903 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Shamrock Rovers xG
37%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Longford Town 0 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 14% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 61% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (3 meetings): Longford Town 0W | Draws 0 | Shamrock Rovers 3W.
What form are Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers in?
Longford Town (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Longford Town's attack rating (0.63) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
14%
6.95
25%
4.02
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.8%
Away win
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.21
1.58
Shamrock Rovers xG
6.95
14%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
3%
33.90
33%
3.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 17.5 | 13.8 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.58 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Longford Town have picked up 0.47 PPG on a 2W 8D 20L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 20W 5D 5L from 30 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 1.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Longford Town.
Venue Form
On home soil, Longford Town have posted 0.60 PPG from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 10W 1D 4L from 15 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Longford Town are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.60 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Longford Town have gone 2W 8D 20L in their last 30 games (0.47 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 20W 5D 5L in their last 30 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Longford Town at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Longford Town at home: 0.60 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Longford Town or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Longford Town have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Longford Town's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
0
Draws
4
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 0, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2021, when Longford Town 0-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Longford Town 33%, Shamrock Rovers 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Longford Town) and 33% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 47%; Longford Town have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Longford Town play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Longford Town's recent matches and 40% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Longford Town's recent games and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Longford Town have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Longford Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Longford Town 0-1 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.62 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.58 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.63 / defence 1.52 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 14% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 61%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Longford Town 43%, Shamrock Rovers 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Longford Town's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.47. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.