Longford Town 0-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Longford Town vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 22 as Longford Town welcome Derry City to Bishopsgate Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Longford Town have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Longford Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bishopsgate Stadium, Longford Town have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derry City away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derry City are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Longford Town, 0 for Derry City and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Longford Town in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Derry City in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Longford Town 52% versus Derry City 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Longford Town 38% | Derry City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.74 xG and Derry City 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.656 / defence 1.320 | Derry City attack 0.807 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.224. Longford Town's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Longford Town games / 21 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Longford Town 21% | Draw 29% | Derry City 50%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Derry City 2.00. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Longford Town 40% | Derry City 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 21% | Draw 29% | Derry City 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Longford Town 0.74 / Derry City 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.656 / def 1.320 | Derry City attack 0.807 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Derry City (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Derry City xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Derry City kick off?
Longford Town vs Derry City kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Derry City?
Longford Town 0 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Longford Town vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Derry City part of?
Longford Town vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 21% chance of winning, Derry City a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Longford Town and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Derry City?
Record (2 meetings): Longford Town 1W | Draws 1 | Derry City 0W.
What form are Longford Town and Derry City in?
Longford Town (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Derry City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
21%
4.70
29%
3.47
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.05
1.30
Derry City xG
4.70
21%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
6%
17.33
24%
4.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 16.9 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.30 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Longford Town have picked up 0.52 PPG on a 1W 8D 12L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Longford Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derry City's form line: 6W 7D 8L from 21 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Longford Town.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Longford Town have posted 0.30 PPG from 10 outings (0W 3D 7L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.19 PPG overall record — Derry City travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Longford Town are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.10 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Longford Town and Derry City in coming into this match?
Longford Town have gone 1W 8D 12L in their last 21 games (0.52 PPG), while Derry City have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Longford Town at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Longford Town at home: 0.30 PPG; Derry City away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Longford Town and Derry City runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Derry City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Longford Town's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Longford Town
1
Draws
2
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Derry City?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 1, Derry City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2021, when Derry City 3-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Longford Town 40%, Derry City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Longford Town) and 40% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Longford Town have failed to score in 60% of games; Derry City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Longford Town play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Longford Town's recent matches and 50% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Longford Town vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Longford Town's recent games and 40% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Longford Town and Derry City tend to score early?
Longford Town have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Derry City in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Longford Town 0-2 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.74 xG and Derry City 1.30 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.66 / defence 1.32 against Derry City attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 21% | Draw 29% | Derry City 50%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Longford Town 38%, Derry City 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Longford Town's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.52. Form held, and they took the win. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.