Galway United 1-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Galway United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. meet at Eamonn Deacy Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Galway United (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Galway United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Eamonn Deacy Park, Galway United have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eamonn Deacy Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
St Patrick's Athl. have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Galway United against 1.20 for St Patrick's Athl.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Galway United, 1 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2024, ended 1–2 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Galway United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 48% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galway United 20% versus St Patrick's Athl. 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Galway United 16% | St Patrick's Athl. 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galway United 0.95 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galway United attack 0.779 / defence 0.791 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.810 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 0.992. Galway United's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Galway United's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Galway United games / 62 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galway United 41% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 23%. Fair-value odds: Galway United 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — St Patrick's Athl.'s lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Galway United are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galway United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.58 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Galway United 10% | St Patrick's Athl. 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Eamonn Deacy Park • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galway United 41% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG Galway United 0.95 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Galway United attack 0.779 / def 0.791 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.810 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.294 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Galway United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Galway United xG
Expected Goals
0.64
St Patrick's Athl. xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Eamonn Deacy Park.
What was the final score in Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Galway United 1 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Eamonn Deacy Park.
What competition is Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Galway United a 41% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Galway United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galway United and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (1 meetings): Galway United 0W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 1W.
What form are Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Galway United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Galway United's attack at 0.78x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (0.81x) against Galway United's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 25/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.9%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galway United Win
41%
2.45
36%
2.75
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Galway United xG
Total xG
1.58
0.64
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.38
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.5 | 13.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 12.4 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.1%.
How many goals are Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Galway United and 0.64 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Galway United have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 10W 7D 8L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Galway United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 7W 7D 11L from 25 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Galway United against 1.12 for St Patrick's Athl.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Galway United have posted 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (5W 4D 2L).
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 0W 5D 6L from 11 away games — 0.45 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St Patrick's Athl.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galway United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Galway United are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.04 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Galway United have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: Galway United have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galway United
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Galway United have gone 10W 7D 8L in their last 25 games (1.48 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galway United at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Galway United's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galway United at home: 1.73 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Galway United or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Galway United have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 3 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Galway United have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Galway United
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galway United and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Galway United have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Galway United.
Who has won more matches between Galway United and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Galway United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 18% (Galway United) and 46% (St Patrick's Athl.) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Galway United and 46% for St Patrick's Athl..
On the defensive side: Galway United keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Galway United have failed to score in 46% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galway United home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galway United play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Galway United's recent matches and 46% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Galway United's recent games and 46% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Galway United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 27, as Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 0.95 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.64 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 0.78 / defence 0.79 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 25/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galway United 41% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 23%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 16%, St Patrick's Athl. 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galway United's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galway United 1.48 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.