Galway United 0-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. meet at Eamonn Deacy Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
St Patrick's Athl. have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galway United 1.26 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galway United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.038 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.069. Data: 0 Galway United games / 36 St Patrick's Athl. games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Galway United 35% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 36%. Fair-value odds: Galway United 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Eamonn Deacy Park • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galway United 35% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Galway United 1.26 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Galway United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.038 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Galway United xG
Expected Goals
1.28
St Patrick's Athl. xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Eamonn Deacy Park.
What was the final score in Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Galway United 0 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Eamonn Deacy Park.
What competition is Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Galway United a 35% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galway United and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. St Patrick's Athl. away split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Galway United's attack at 0.85x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (1.04x) against Galway United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 0/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
35%
2.85
29%
3.46
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Galway United xG
Total xG
2.54
1.28
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Galway United and 1.28 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Galway United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galway United
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 3 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Galway United have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Galway United
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galway United and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Galway United have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Galway United.
Who has won more matches between Galway United and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galway United home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Galway United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Galway United 0-1 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.26 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Galway United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.04 / defence 0.95, drawn from 0/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galway United 35% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 36%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.