Finn Harps 0-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. meet at Finn Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 March 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Finn Harps (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Finn Harps have posted 3W 5D 2L at Finn Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, St Patrick's Athl. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Finn Harps, 2 for St Patrick's Athl. and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Finn Harps — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 61% versus St Patrick's Athl. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 58% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.13 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 1.066 / defence 0.993 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.091 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.034. Data: 39 Finn Harps games / 40 St Patrick's Athl. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 35% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Finn Harps if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Finn Harps 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 35% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Finn Harps 1.13 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 1.066 / def 0.993 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.091 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.12
St Patrick's Athl. xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Finn Harps 0 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 35% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (4 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 1 | St Patrick's Athl. 2W.
What form are Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Finn Harps's attack rating (1.07) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (1.09x) against Finn Harps's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (39/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
35%
2.88
31%
3.19
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.25
1.12
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.12 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 11W 11D 14L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 18W 8D 10L from 36 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Finn Harps.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 6D 6L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Finn Harps are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.56 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.17 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Finn Harps or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 on 21 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Finn Harps have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
2
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2022, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 61%, St Patrick's Athl. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Finn Harps) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Finn Harps's games and 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Finn Harps's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Finn Harps 0-2 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.13 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.12 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Finn Harps fell 1.1 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 1.07 / defence 0.99 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 39/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 35% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 58%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.