Finn Harps 1-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Finn Harps face Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Derry City travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps in Premier Division (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Finn Harps — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Finn Harps have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Derry City have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derry City away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Finn Harps 1.30 PPG, Derry City 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Finn Harps's last 10 home games and Derry City's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Finn Harps, 1 for Derry City and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Sep 2021, ended Finn Harps 2–2 Derry City — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Derry City in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Finn Harps 61% and Derry City 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 58% | Derry City 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Finn Harps surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Derry City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.28 xG and Derry City 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.948 / defence 1.243 | Derry City attack 0.959 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.176. Derry City's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Finn Harps's projected output up. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derry City's projected output up. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 33 games and Derry City's last 33.
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 34% | Draw 26% | Derry City 40%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.93 | Draw 3.86 | Derry City 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Finn Harps's last 10 home games and Derry City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Finn Harps 80% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 34 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 November 2021 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 34% | Draw 26% | Derry City 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Finn Harps 1.28 / Derry City 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.948 / def 1.243 | Derry City attack 0.959 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Derry City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Derry City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Finn Harps vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Finn Harps vs Derry City kick off?
Finn Harps vs Derry City kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 5 November 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Finn Harps 1 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Finn Harps vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Derry City part of?
Finn Harps vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 34) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 34% chance of winning, Derry City a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Finn Harps and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Finn Harps vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Finn Harps's attack rating (0.95) and Derry City's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Finn Harps's last 33 games and Derry City's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.86
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.68
1.40
Derry City xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Finn Harps vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.40 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 10W 9D 14L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 12W 11D 10L from 33 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Finn Harps on 1.18 PPG, Derry City on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 1.06 PPG from their last 16 home games (4W 5D 7L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 7W 3D 6L from their last 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Finn Harps are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.33 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Derry City in 61%.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
Finn Harps (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Finn Harps
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Finn Harps vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are Finn Harps and Derry City in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 games (1.18 PPG), while Derry City have gone 12W 11D 10L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.06 PPG; Derry City away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 7 October 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derry City have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Oct 2022, when Derry City won Derry City 3-0 Finn Harps.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
3
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Finn Harps vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Derry City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Finn Harps have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 October 2022: Derry City 3-0 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 62%, Derry City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Finn Harps) and 50% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Finn Harps vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Finn Harps and Derry City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Finn Harps's games and 56% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Finn Harps and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Finn Harps's recent games and 50% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Derry City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 81% of Derry City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Finn Harps and Derry City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finn Park, Regular Season - 34, as Finn Harps and Derry City drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.28 xG and Derry City 1.40 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Derry City attack 0.96 / defence 1.26, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 34% | Draw 26% | Derry City 40%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 58%, Derry City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Finn Harps 1.18 PPG, Derry City 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.