Dundalk 2-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 69%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
UCD make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 7W 0D 3L at Oriel Park — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
UCD (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Premier Division outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. UCD are 1.00 PPG clear of Dundalk in recent Premier Division fixtures (3.00 vs 2.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Dundalk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, UCD in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 2.12 xG and UCD 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.121 / defence 0.889 | UCD attack 0.785 / defence 1.546. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.016. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.546 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Dundalk games / 6 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 69% | Draw 22% | UCD 10%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.45 | Draw 4.55 | UCD 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 69% | Draw 22% | UCD 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 46% | xG Dundalk 2.12 / UCD 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.121 / def 0.889 | UCD attack 0.785 / def 1.546 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.71
UCD xG
46%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs UCD kick off?
Dundalk vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs UCD?
Dundalk 2 - 0 UCD.
Where is Dundalk vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs UCD part of?
Dundalk vs UCD is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 69% chance of winning, UCD a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dundalk and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and UCD?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and UCD in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.12x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.79x) against Dundalk's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 43/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
69%
1.46
22%
4.57
10%
10.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.83
0.71
UCD xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
10.43
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
1%
87.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.71 for UCD, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dundalk's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dundalk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
UCD, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours UCD by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; UCD in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Early Season
UCD
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and UCD in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dundalk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dundalk won 1-5 on 3 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
1
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, UCD have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2023, when UCD 1-5 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and UCD?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play UCD?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Dundalk's games and 100% of UCD's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Dundalk's matches and 100% of UCD's.
Do Dundalk and UCD tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, UCD in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat UCD 2-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 2.12 xG and UCD 0.71 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against UCD attack 0.79 / defence 1.55, drawn from 43/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 69% | Draw 22% | UCD 10%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 100%, UCD 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, UCD arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. UCD managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.