Dundalk 0-5 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dundalk (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dundalk face Sligo Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Dundalk at Oriel Park this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Dundalk's favour (1.80 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dundalk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sligo Rovers in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Dundalk, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Sligo Rovers — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Dundalk winning.
The historical record gives Dundalk a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 50% versus Sligo Rovers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 51% | Sligo Rovers 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.42 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.002 / defence 1.074 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.032 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.218. Data: 38 Dundalk games / 39 Sligo Rovers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 38% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 35%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Sligo Rovers 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 60% | Sligo Rovers 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 4 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 38% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Dundalk 1.42 / Sligo Rovers 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.002 / def 1.074 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.032 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Sligo Rovers xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 4 March 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk 0 - 5 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 38% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Record (3 meetings): Dundalk 3W | Draws 0 | Sligo Rovers 0W.
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.03x) against Dundalk's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (38/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.78
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.77
1.35
Sligo Rovers xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.35 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 34W 19D 19L from 72 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 31L across 72 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sligo Rovers heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 22W 10D 4L from 36 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 8W 8D 20L across 36 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.18 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 31L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Dundalk's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.11 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
3
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Sligo Rovers 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dundalk) and 56% (Sligo Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Sligo Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dundalk's games and 58% of Sligo Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Dundalk's matches and 56% of Sligo Rovers's.
Do Dundalk and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sligo Rovers run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Dundalk 0-5 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.42 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.35 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sligo Rovers outscored their 1.35 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.00 / defence 1.07 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 38/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 38% | Draw 26% | Sligo Rovers 35%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 51%, Sligo Rovers 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Sligo Rovers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.