Dundalk 0-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dundalk face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Dundalk 2W, Shamrock Rovers 4W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 49% versus Shamrock Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 43% | Shamrock Rovers 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.73 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.680 / defence 1.220 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.062 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.030. Dundalk's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 70 Dundalk games / 70 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 19% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 49%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 5.26 | Draw 3.12 | Shamrock Rovers 2.04. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 20% | Shamrock Rovers 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 19% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Dundalk 0.73 / Shamrock Rovers 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.680 / def 1.220 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.062 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Shamrock Rovers xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 17:45 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Dundalk 0 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 19% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 49% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (7 meetings): Dundalk 2W | Draws 1 | Shamrock Rovers 4W.
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.68) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.06x) against Dundalk's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
19%
5.39
32%
3.09
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.07
1.33
Shamrock Rovers xG
5.39
19%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
5%
20.45
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 16.9 | 11.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.33 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dundalk's recent record stands at 22W 17D 31L from 70 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 35W 22D 13L across 70 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 14W 10D 11L from 35 games — 1.49 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 14W 13D 8L across 35 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.63 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 22W 17D 31L in their last 70 games (1.19 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 35W 22D 13L in their last 70 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.49 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 40%, Shamrock Rovers 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Dundalk) and 34% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 46%; Dundalk have failed to score in 37% of games; Shamrock Rovers in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Dundalk's recent matches and 43% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Dundalk's recent games and 34% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Dundalk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Dundalk 0-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.73 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.33 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.68 / defence 1.22 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.06 / defence 0.85, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 19% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 49%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 43%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.